Premier Division (South Africa) · Tue, Oct 13 · 17:30 · Kaizer Chiefs vs Stellenbosch
Likeliest: Kaizer Chiefs win · 52%
We make it 48% for both teams to score. The market says 42%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kaizer Chiefs52%52%0
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Stellenbosch18%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 38% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 42% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kaizer Chiefs
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Sep 20 · at Lamontville Golden Arrows (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · at Polokwane City (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Siwelele FC (H)3-2
- Aug 26 · at Richards Bay FC (A)2-2
- Aug 15 · v Mamelodi Sundowns (H)1-1
Stellenbosch
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 19 · at Kruger United (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Sekhukhune United (H)1-1
- Sep 1 · at Durban City FC (A)0-0
- Aug 26 · at Lamontville Golden Arrows (A)0-1
- Aug 14 · v Marumo Gallants FC (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Kaizer Chiefs | Stellenbosch |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.