Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:00 · Kalmar vs BK Häcken
Likeliest: BK Häcken win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kalmar31%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
BK Häcken42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kalmar
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 13 · at IF Elfsborg (A)0-1
- Sep 7 · v Djurgården (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Halmstads BK (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Västerås SK (A)0-0
- Aug 19 · at Ängelholms FF (A)7-0
BK Häcken
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 11 · v Mjällby (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at GAIS (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Västerås SK (H)1-3
- Aug 25 · at Utsiktens BK (A)2-1
- Aug 21 · at IK Sirius (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Kalmar | BK Häcken |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.