NWSL (USA) · Sat, Oct 3 · 22:30 · Kansas City Current vs Bay FC
Likeliest: Kansas City Current win · 62%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kansas City Current62%60%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Bay FC17%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 56% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kansas City Current
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 26 · v Denver Summit FC (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at San Diego Wave FC (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Orlando Pride (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Bay FC (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v North Carolina Courage (H)3-2
Bay FC
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 27 · v Orlando Pride (H)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Racing Louisville (H)2-0
- Sep 17 · at Denver Summit FC (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Seattle Reign FC (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Kansas City Current (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Kansas City Current | Bay FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-0 | 1-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.