NWSL (USA) · Sat, Sep 26 · 16:30 · Kansas City Current vs Denver Summit FC
Likeliest: Kansas City Current win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kansas City Current46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Denver Summit FC30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kansas City Current
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at San Diego Wave FC (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Orlando Pride (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Bay FC (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v North Carolina Courage (H)3-2
- Aug 22 · v Seattle Reign FC (H)1-1
Denver Summit FC
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Sep 20 · v Seattle Reign FC (H)2-1
- Sep 17 · v Bay FC (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Angel City FC (A)3-3
- Sep 6 · v NJ/NY Gotham FC (H)3-0
- Aug 30 · v Chicago Stars FC (H)6-1
| Last 10 games | Kansas City Current | Denver Summit FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-0 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.