NWSL (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 21:00 · Kansas City Current vs Washington Spirit
Likeliest: Kansas City Current win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kansas City Current51%50%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Washington Spirit24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kansas City Current
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Utah Royals FC (A)2-0
- Oct 3 · v Bay FC (H)5-1
- Sep 26 · v Denver Summit FC (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at San Diego Wave FC (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Orlando Pride (H)2-2
Washington Spirit
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · v NJ/NY Gotham FC (H)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Houston Dash (A)3-2
- Sep 26 · v Angel City FC (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Chicago Stars FC (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Boston Legacy FC (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Kansas City Current | Washington Spirit |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 6-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.