Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Fri, Sep 25 · 16:00 · KäPa vs FC Haka
Likeliest: FC Haka win · 66%
A 66% away win. The market says 61%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KäPa14%18%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
FC Haka66%61%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 34% | 39% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 17% | 22% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KäPa
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 19 · at SJK Akatemia (A)3-2
- Sep 11 · v PK-35 (H)1-4
- Sep 7 · at HJK Klubi 04 (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · at JäPS (A)0-0
- Aug 20 · v Jippo Joensuu (H)1-3
FC Haka
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 18 · v HJK Klubi 04 (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at EIF (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v MP (H)0-2
- Aug 28 · at KTP (A)1-2
- Aug 21 · v SJK Akatemia (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | KäPa | FC Haka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-5 | 4-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.