Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Fri, Oct 9 · 16:00 · KäPa vs MP
Likeliest: KäPa win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KäPa46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
MP29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KäPa
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 25 · v FC Haka (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at SJK Akatemia (A)3-2
- Sep 11 · v PK-35 (H)1-4
- Sep 7 · at HJK Klubi 04 (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · at JäPS (A)0-0
MP
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 25 · at KTP (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Jippo Joensuu (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v SJK Akatemia (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at FC Haka (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v PK-35 (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | KäPa | MP |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-5 | 1-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.