2. Liga (Austria) · Fri, Jul 31 · 16:30 · Kapfenberger SV vs FC Liefering
Likeliest: FC Liefering win · 38%
A 34% home win. The market says 24%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kapfenberger SV34%24%+11
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+3
OursMarket
FC Liefering38%52%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 62% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 62% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 48% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 76% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 31% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.