2. Liga (Austria) · Fri, Oct 23 · 16:30 · Kapfenberger SV vs SKN St. Pölten
Likeliest: SKN St. Pölten win · 58%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the away win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kapfenberger SV17%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
SKN St. Pölten58%54%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 46% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 23% | 28% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kapfenberger SV
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at Sturm Graz II (A)0-0
- Oct 9 · v Young Violets Austria Wien (H)0-1
- Sep 18 · v SKU Amstetten (H)3-4
- Sep 11 · at Admira Wacker (A)0-1
- Aug 28 · v FC Blau Weiss Linz (H)2-1
SKN St. Pölten
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 16 · v Rapid Wien II (H)0-0
- Oct 9 · at First Vienna (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at FC Liefering (A)3-1
- Aug 28 · v Austria Salzburg (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Kapfenberger SV | SKN St. Pölten |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-7 | 3-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-0-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.