2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 18 · 11:30 · Karlsruher SC vs Darmstadt 98
Likeliest: Karlsruher SC win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Karlsruher SC42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Darmstadt 9833%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Karlsruher SC
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at FC St. Pauli (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v 1. FC Nürnberg (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Energie Cottbus (H)0-3
- Sep 4 · at Hannover 96 (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)2-5
Darmstadt 98
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Energie Cottbus (H)3-1
- Sep 18 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-5
- Sep 11 · v Arminia Bielefeld (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at 1. FC Kaiserslautern (A)0-3
- Aug 30 · v Hannover 96 (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Karlsruher SC | Darmstadt 98 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.