2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Sep 13 · 11:30 · Karlsruher SC vs Energie Cottbus
Likeliest: Karlsruher SC win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Karlsruher SC57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Energie Cottbus21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 68% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Karlsruher SC
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 4 · at Hannover 96 (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)2-5
- Aug 21 · at Preußen Münster (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · at 1. FC Kaiserslautern (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · v Arminia Bielefeld (H)2-1
Energie Cottbus
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 5 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)4-4
- Aug 29 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)3-4
- Aug 22 · v FC Augsburg (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at Arminia Bielefeld (A)0-3
- Aug 9 · v Hannover 96 (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Karlsruher SC | Energie Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 14% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.