2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, May 17 · 13:30 · Karlsruher SC vs VfL Bochum 1848
Likeliest: Karlsruher SC win · 57%
A 57% home win. The market says 37%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Karlsruher SC57%37%+20
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
VfL Bochum 184821%39%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 71% | −13 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 61% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 63% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 49% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Karlsruher SC
WinLossLossWinDraw
- May 8 · at Paderborn (A)2-2
- May 3 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)2-1
- Apr 25 · v Hannover 96 (H)1-3
- Apr 17 · at Elversberg (A)0-3
- Apr 10 · v DSC Arminia Bielefeld (H)4-1
VfL Bochum 1848
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- May 9 · v Hannover 96 (H)1-1
- May 2 · at DSC Arminia Bielefeld (A)1-1
- Apr 26 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Dynamo Dresden (A)0-2
- Apr 12 · v Eintracht Braunschweig (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Karlsruher SC | VfL Bochum 1848 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.