2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Aug 29 · 11:00 · Karlsruher SC vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: Karlsruher SC win · 45%
We make it 55% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Karlsruher SC45%26%+18
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg33%49%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 64% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 51% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 74% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 35% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Karlsruher SC
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Aug 21 · at Preußen Münster (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · at 1. FC Kaiserslautern (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · v Arminia Bielefeld (H)2-1
- May 17 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)1-2
- May 8 · at Paderborn (A)2-2
VfL Wolfsburg
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Aug 24 · at VSG Altglienicke (A)2-2
- Aug 16 · at Hannover 96 (A)1-0
- Aug 8 · v 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H)0-0
- May 25 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)1-1
- May 16 · at St. Pauli (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Karlsruher SC | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.