Premier League (Ukraine) · Sat, Sep 5 · 15:00 · Karpaty Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Likeliest: Shakhtar Donetsk win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 28%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Karpaty Lviv31%36%−5
OursMarket
Draw23%36%−13
OursMarket
Shakhtar Donetsk46%28%+18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 50% | +16 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 72% | −18 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 64% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 64% | +13 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 56% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Karpaty Lviv
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 29 · at FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Bukovyna Chernivtsi (H)3-0
- Aug 10 · v LNZ Cherkasy (H)3-0
- Aug 1 · at FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (A)4-1
- May 23 · v Zorya Luhansk (H)1-2
Shakhtar Donetsk
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 29 · v Polissya Zhytomyr (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at Metalist 1925 (A)1-0
- Aug 9 · at FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (A)2-0
- Aug 3 · v Kudrivka (H)5-1
- May 21 · v Kolos Kovalivka (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Karpaty Lviv | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.