Premier League (Ukraine) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:30 · Karpaty Lviv vs Veres Rivne
Likeliest: Karpaty Lviv win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Karpaty Lviv55%64%−9
OursMarket
Draw27%23%+4
OursMarket
Veres Rivne18%13%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 47% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 87% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 36% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 83% | −8 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Karpaty Lviv
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 11 · at Kolos Kovalivka (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Bukovyna Chernivtsi (H)3-0
- Aug 10 · v LNZ Cherkasy (H)3-0
Veres Rivne
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 6 · v Zoria Luhansk (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at LNZ Cherkasy (A)0-0
- Aug 14 · at FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (A)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Dynamo Kyiv (H)1-2
- Aug 1 · at Metalist 1925 (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Karpaty Lviv | Veres Rivne |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 0-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.