Challenger Pro League (Belgium) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:00 · KAS Eupen vs K. Beerschot V.A.
Likeliest: K. Beerschot V.A. win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KAS Eupen31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
K. Beerschot V.A.41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KAS Eupen
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at KV Mechelen (A)1-5
- Oct 9 · at RSCA Futures U23 (A)2-0
- Sep 27 · at KFC Merelbeke (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v RFC Liège (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (A)2-1
K. Beerschot V.A.
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v RSC Anderlecht (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · v RFC Liège (H)5-1
- Sep 27 · at Crossing Schaerbeek (A)5-3
- Sep 19 · at Koninklijke Sporting Hasselt (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | KAS Eupen | K. Beerschot V.A. |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.