Challenger Pro League (Belgium) · Sat, Sep 19 · 18:00 · KAS Eupen vs RFC Liège
Likeliest: KAS Eupen win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KAS Eupen53%52%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
RFC Liège22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KAS Eupen
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 13 · at Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Club NXT U23 (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · at KSC Lokeren-Temse (A)1-2
- Aug 15 · v Jong KRC Genk U23 (H)4-1
- Apr 17 · at RFC Liège (A)1-2
RFC Liège
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · v Club NXT U23 (H)4-4
- Sep 6 · at Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v FCV Dender (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Jong KRC Genk U23 (A)3-2
- Aug 17 · v Royal Francs Borains (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | KAS Eupen | RFC Liège |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.