J-League (Japan) · Fri, Oct 9 · 10:00 · Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka
Likeliest: Kashima Antlers win · 50%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kashima Antlers50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Gamba Osaka25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kashima Antlers
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 23 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)3-3
- Sep 15 · v Newcastle Jets (H)7-1
- Sep 11 · at Vissel Kobe (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Urawa Red Diamonds (H)0-1
Gamba Osaka
LossLossWinLossWin
- Sep 23 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)5-0
- Sep 20 · v Vissel Kobe (H)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Công An Hà Nội (H)4-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Tokyo (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at JEF United Chiba (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Kashima Antlers | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.