J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 24 · 06:00 · Kashima Antlers vs Kashiwa Reysol
Likeliest: Kashima Antlers win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Kashima Antlers42%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Kashiwa Reysol33%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kashima Antlers
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)2-0
- Oct 13 · at Công An Hà Nội (A)1-0
- Oct 9 · v Gamba Osaka (H)2-0
- Sep 23 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)3-3
Kashiwa Reysol
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)1-3
- Oct 14 · v Port FC (H)5-1
- Oct 9 · v Vissel Kobe (H)4-2
- Sep 23 · v FC Imabari (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · at Machida Zelvia (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | Kashima Antlers | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.