AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Sep 15 · 10:00 · Kashima Antlers vs Newcastle Jets
Likeliest: Kashima Antlers win · 67%
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kashima Antlers67%65%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Newcastle Jets15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 35% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kashima Antlers
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 11 · at Vissel Kobe (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Urawa Red Diamonds (H)0-1
- Sep 2 · at Mito Hollyhock (A)2-4
- Aug 29 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)2-0
- Aug 22 · v Avispa Fukuoka (H)3-2
Newcastle Jets
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- May 16 · v Sydney (H)1-1
- May 9 · at Sydney (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Central Coast Mariners (H)4-0
- Apr 17 · at Melbourne Victory (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Adelaide United (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Kashima Antlers | Newcastle Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.