J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 06:00 · Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki
Likeliest: Kashima Antlers win · 64%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kashima Antlers64%63%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
V-Varen Nagasaki15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 37% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kashima Antlers
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 13 · at Công An Hà Nội (A)1-0
- Oct 9 · v Gamba Osaka (H)2-0
- Sep 23 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)3-3
- Sep 15 · v Newcastle Jets (H)7-1
V-Varen Nagasaki
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · at JEF United Chiba (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Cerezo Osaka (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · at Vissel Kobe (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Kashima Antlers | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.