Emperor Cup (Japan) · Wed, Sep 23 · 08:00 · Kashima Antlers vs Ventforet Kofu
Likeliest: Kashima Antlers win · 72%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 47%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kashima Antlers72%73%−1
OursMarket
Draw17%16%+1
OursMarket
Ventforet Kofu11%11%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 63% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 47% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 89% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 27% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 84% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 87% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kashima Antlers
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)3-3
- Sep 15 · v Newcastle Jets (H)7-1
- Sep 11 · at Vissel Kobe (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Urawa Red Diamonds (H)0-1
- Sep 2 · at Mito Hollyhock (A)2-4
Ventforet Kofu
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Jubilo Iwata (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Kashima Antlers | Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.