AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Nov 3 · 10:00 · Kashiwa Reysol vs Daejeon Hana Citizen
Likeliest: Kashiwa Reysol win · 63%
Likely scores: 2–0 11% · 2–1 11% · 1–1 10%
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kashiwa Reysol63%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%−1
OursMarket
Daejeon Hana Citizen15%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kashiwa Reysol
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 31 · v Urawa Red Diamonds (H)4-0
- Oct 27 · at Ratchaburi (A)0-0
- Oct 24 · at Kashima Antlers (A)3-2
- Oct 21 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-0
- Oct 17 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)1-3
Daejeon Hana Citizen
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 31 · at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (A)0-0
- Oct 27 · v Vissel Kobe (H)0-1
- Oct 24 · at Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A)2-1
- Oct 18 · v Gwangju FC (H)3-2
- Oct 13 · at Shanghai Port (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Kashiwa Reysol | Daejeon Hana Citizen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.