J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 10:00 · Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus
Likeliest: Kashiwa Reysol win · 61%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kashiwa Reysol61%59%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Nagoya Grampus18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kashiwa Reysol
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 14 · v Port FC (H)5-1
- Oct 9 · v Vissel Kobe (H)4-2
- Sep 23 · v FC Imabari (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · at Machida Zelvia (A)4-2
- Sep 16 · at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (A)1-2
Nagoya Grampus
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · at V-Varen Nagasaki (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Machida Zelvia (H)1-3
- Sep 2 · at Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Kashiwa Reysol | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.