J-League (Japan) · Fri, Oct 9 · 10:00 · Kashiwa Reysol vs Vissel Kobe
Likeliest: Kashiwa Reysol win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kashiwa Reysol43%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Vissel Kobe28%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kashiwa Reysol
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 23 · v FC Imabari (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · at Machida Zelvia (A)4-2
- Sep 16 · at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · at Kyoto Sanga FC (A)3-2
- Sep 6 · v Yokohama F. Marinos (H)0-2
Vissel Kobe
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 23 · v Sagan Tosu (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Gamba Osaka (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Port FC (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Kashima Antlers (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Kashiwa Reysol | Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.