Super Lig (Turkey) · Fri, Sep 18 · 17:00 · Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor
Likeliest: Kasımpaşa win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kasımpaşa38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+2
OursMarket
Konyaspor31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kasımpaşa
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Sep 13 · at Gençlerbirliği (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at Başakşehir FK (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Çorum FK (A)1-0
- Aug 15 · v Trabzonspor (H)1-1
Konyaspor
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 12 · v Trabzonspor (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Erzurumspor FK (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Kocaelispor (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Fenerbahçe (A)2-4
- Aug 15 · v Çaykur Rizespor (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Kasımpaşa | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.