Super Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 18 · 10:30 · Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor
Likeliest: Samsunspor win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kasımpaşa35%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Samsunspor36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kasımpaşa
DrawDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · at Galatasaray (A)1-3
- Sep 18 · v Konyaspor (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Gençlerbirliği (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at Başakşehir FK (A)1-1
Samsunspor
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Trabzonspor (H)0-3
- Sep 20 · at Erzurumspor FK (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Çorum FK (H)1-5
- Sep 6 · at Kocaelispor (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Fenerbahçe (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Kasımpaşa | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.