J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 09:00 · Kataller Toyama vs Shonan Bellmare
Likeliest: Kataller Toyama win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kataller Toyama47%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%26%+1
OursMarket
Shonan Bellmare27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kataller Toyama
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 11 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · at Ventforet Kofu (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Tochigi City FC (H)0-0
Shonan Bellmare
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Albirex Niigata (H)1-1
- Oct 7 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-4
- Oct 3 · at Fujieda MYFC (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · at FC Imabari (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Blaublitz Akita (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Kataller Toyama | Shonan Bellmare |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.