J2 League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 11 · 05:00 · Kataller Toyama vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Likeliest: Kataller Toyama win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kataller Toyama47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Tegevajaro Miyazaki26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kataller Toyama
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 3 · at Ventforet Kofu (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Tochigi City FC (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Jubilo Iwata (A)1-0
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 7 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)0-2
- Oct 4 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)3-2
- Sep 18 · at Vanraure Hachinohe (A)3-0
- Sep 12 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Kataller Toyama | Tegevajaro Miyazaki |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-1 | 1-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.