J2 League (Japan) · Tue, Nov 3 · 04:55 · Kataller Toyama vs Vegalta Sendai
Likeliest: Kataller Toyama win · 34%
Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 0–0 10% · 1–2 10%
A tight one: we make it 34% for the home win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kataller Toyama34%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Vegalta Sendai34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kataller Toyama
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 31 · at Albirex Niigata (A)3-2
- Oct 25 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)0-1
- Oct 21 · at RB Omiya Ardija (A)3-0
- Oct 17 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)1-1
Vegalta Sendai
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 31 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)1-2
- Oct 25 · at Albirex Niigata (A)1-2
- Oct 21 · v FC Imabari (H)3-1
- Oct 17 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Kataller Toyama | Vegalta Sendai |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-2 | 5-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.