J-League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 25 · 07:00 · Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama
Likeliest: Kawasaki Frontale win · 50%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Kawasaki Frontale50%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Fagiano Okayama25%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kawasaki Frontale
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Cerezo Osaka (A)4-2
- Oct 11 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)1-2
- Oct 7 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Kashima Antlers (H)3-3
- Sep 12 · at Mito Hollyhock (A)1-0
Fagiano Okayama
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Vissel Kobe (H)0-3
- Oct 10 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-2
- Oct 7 · v JEF United Chiba (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Urawa Red Diamonds (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Kawasaki Frontale | Fagiano Okayama |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.