J-League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 11 · 07:00 · Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus
Likeliest: Kawasaki Frontale win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kawasaki Frontale52%51%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Nagoya Grampus24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kawasaki Frontale
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 7 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Kashima Antlers (H)3-3
- Sep 12 · at Mito Hollyhock (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Shimizu S-Pulse (H)3-1
- Sep 2 · at Machida Zelvia (A)1-2
Nagoya Grampus
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 19 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · at V-Varen Nagasaki (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Machida Zelvia (H)1-3
- Sep 2 · at Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A)0-3
- Aug 29 · v Fagiano Okayama (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Kawasaki Frontale | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.