Emperor Cup (Japan) · Wed, Oct 7 · 10:00 · Kawasaki Frontale vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Likeliest: Kawasaki Frontale win · 45%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kawasaki Frontale45%51%−6
OursMarket
Draw29%25%+4
OursMarket
Tegevajaro Miyazaki26%24%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 49% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 68% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kawasaki Frontale
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 19 · v Kashima Antlers (H)3-3
- Sep 12 · at Mito Hollyhock (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Shimizu S-Pulse (H)3-1
- Sep 2 · at Machida Zelvia (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v JEF United Chiba (H)4-2
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 4 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)3-2
- Sep 18 · at Vanraure Hachinohe (A)3-0
- Sep 12 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Sagan Tosu (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Kawasaki Frontale | Tegevajaro Miyazaki |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.