J-League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe
Likeliest: Vissel Kobe win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kawasaki Frontale34%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Vissel Kobe37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 58% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kawasaki Frontale
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Cerezo Osaka (A)4-2
- Oct 11 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)1-2
- Oct 7 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Kashima Antlers (H)3-3
- Sep 12 · at Mito Hollyhock (A)1-0
Vissel Kobe
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)3-0
- Oct 14 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)2-0
- Oct 9 · at Kashiwa Reysol (A)2-4
- Sep 23 · v Sagan Tosu (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Gamba Osaka (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Kawasaki Frontale | Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.