1. Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · Kayserispor vs Batman Petrolspor
Likeliest: Kayserispor win · 60%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kayserispor60%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Batman Petrolspor17%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kayserispor
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 14 · at Antalyaspor (A)4-0
- Oct 10 · v Manisa FK (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Mardin 1969 Spor (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · v İstanbulspor (H)4-0
- Sep 7 · at Esenler Erokspor (A)3-0
Batman Petrolspor
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 14 · v İstanbulspor (H)4-2
- Oct 10 · at Iğdır FK (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Bursaspor (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Bodrum FK (A)0-4
- Sep 6 · v Fatih Karagümrük (H)4-3
| Last 10 games | Kayserispor | Batman Petrolspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.