1. Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:00 · Kayserispor vs Manisa FK
Likeliest: Kayserispor win · 68%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kayserispor68%66%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Manisa FK13%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 46% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 34% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kayserispor
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 20 · at Mardin 1969 Spor (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · v İstanbulspor (H)4-0
- Sep 7 · at Esenler Erokspor (A)3-0
- Sep 2 · at Fatih Karagümrük (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Bursaspor (H)1-2
Manisa FK
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · v İstanbulspor (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Fatih Karagümrük (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Bursaspor (H)1-2
- Sep 3 · at Iğdır FK (A)2-4
- Aug 30 · v Bodrum FK (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Kayserispor | Manisa FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.