1. Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor
Likeliest: Bursaspor win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Keçiörengücü29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Bursaspor41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Keçiörengücü
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 19 · at Fatih Karagümrük (A)2-1
- Oct 14 · v Iğdır FK (H)0-0
- Oct 9 · at Bodrum FK (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Sivasspor (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Van Spor Futbol Kulübü (A)1-1
Bursaspor
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Oct 19 · v Pendikspor (H)2-0
- Oct 15 · at Muğlaspor (A)3-0
- Oct 11 · v Mardin 1969 Spor (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Batman Petrolspor (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Esenler Erokspor (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Keçiörengücü | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-5-0 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 5-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.