Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Keflavík IF vs KR Reykjavík
Likeliest: KR Reykjavík win · 66%
Likely score: 1–2
A 66% away win. The market says 61%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Keflavík IF16%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw18%19%0
OursMarket
KR Reykjavík66%61%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 25% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Keflavík IF
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at Breidablik Kópavogur (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Fram Reykjavík (H)2-2
- Sep 14 · at Víkingur Reykjavík (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · v Valur Reykjavík (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · at FH Hafnarfjörður (A)1-2
KR Reykjavík
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · at Fram Reykjavík (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Víkingur Reykjavík (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · v ÍA Akranes (H)5-1
- Sep 6 · at ÍA Akranes (A)1-3
- Sep 1 · v Víkingur Reykjavík (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Keflavík IF | KR Reykjavík |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 3-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.