Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:45 · Kerry FC vs Cork City
Likeliest: Cork City win · 50%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kerry FC24%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Cork City50%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kerry FC
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 9 · at Cobh Ramblers FC (A)2-0
- Oct 2 · at Finn Harps (A)2-1
- Sep 25 · v Wexford FC (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Athlone Town (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · v Bray Wanderers (H)0-1
Cork City
LossWinLossLossWin
- Oct 9 · v Finn Harps (H)2-0
- Oct 2 · at Athlone Town (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Longford Town (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · v University College Dublin (H)5-1
- Sep 11 · v Cobh Ramblers FC (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Kerry FC | Cork City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-1 | 4-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.