Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 25 · 18:45 · Kerry FC vs Wexford FC
Likeliest: Kerry FC win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kerry FC38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Wexford FC36%34%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kerry FC
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 18 · at Athlone Town (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · v Bray Wanderers (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Longford Town (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · v Treaty United FC (H)3-1
- Aug 21 · v University College Dublin (H)1-1
Wexford FC
LossLossWinLossWin
- Sep 18 · v Cobh Ramblers FC (H)3-1
- Sep 11 · v Finn Harps (H)1-3
- Sep 4 · at Treaty United FC (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · at Cork City (A)0-2
- Aug 21 · v Athlone Town (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Kerry FC | Wexford FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 2-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.