Niké Liga (Slovakia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:30 · KFC Komárno vs MFK Ružomberok
Likeliest: KFC Komárno win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KFC Komárno41%44%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+2
OursMarket
MFK Ružomberok31%30%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 60% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KFC Komárno
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at FC Košice (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v ŠK Slovan Bratislava (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at FK Železiarne Podbrezová (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v MFK Skalica (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Dukla Banská Bystrica (A)2-2
MFK Ružomberok
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 14 · at Spartak Myjava (A)3-0
- Oct 11 · v MŠK Žilina (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at FC Košice (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v MFK Zemplín Michalovce (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · v FC Spartak Trnava (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | KFC Komárno | MFK Ružomberok |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-6-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.