Eliteserien (Norway) · Mon, Oct 12 · 17:00 · KFUM Oslo vs Vålerenga IF
Likeliest: Vålerenga IF win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KFUM Oslo32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Vålerenga IF42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KFUM Oslo
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 30 · at Hønefoss BK (A)2-0
- Sep 18 · at Sarpsborg 08 (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Aalesunds FK (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Molde FK (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · at IK Start (A)1-4
Vålerenga IF
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v Fredrikstad FK (H)1-1
- Sep 17 · at Skeid (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · at Lillestrøm SK (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Sarpsborg 08 (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v Molde FK (H)3-4
| Last 10 games | KFUM Oslo | Vålerenga IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-2 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.