Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:30 · Kheybar Khorramabad FC vs Esteghlal Khuzestan
Likeliest: draw · 37%
Likely score: 1–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the draw. The market says 34%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kheybar Khorramabad FC35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw37%34%+3
OursMarket
Esteghlal Khuzestan28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 42% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kheybar Khorramabad FC
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 14 · v Persepolis FC (H)0-0
- Oct 9 · at Chador Malu Yazd (A)2-2
- Sep 7 · at Nassaji Mazandaran FC (A)0-1
- Sep 2 · v Foolad Khuzestan (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · at Aluminium Arak (A)2-2
Esteghlal Khuzestan
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 8 · at Gol Gohar Sirjan (A)0-3
- Sep 10 · v Tractor FC (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Sepahan S.C. (A)0-1
- Sep 1 · v Chador Malu Yazd (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Paykan (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Kheybar Khorramabad FC | Esteghlal Khuzestan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.