FA Cup (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Kidderminster Harriers vs Solihull Moors
Likeliest: Kidderminster Harriers win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 55%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kidderminster Harriers55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Solihull Moors21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kidderminster Harriers
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at Carlisle United (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Sutton United (H)1-1
- Sep 29 · at Boreham Wood (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v Yeovil Town (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Woking (A)0-0
Solihull Moors
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Worthing FC (A)0-5
- Oct 3 · v FC Halifax Town (H)0-2
- Sep 29 · at Woking (A)4-2
- Sep 26 · v Boreham Wood (H)0-3
- Sep 18 · at Yeovil Town (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Kidderminster Harriers | Solihull Moors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.