National League (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Kidderminster Harriers vs Sutton United
Likeliest: Kidderminster Harriers win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kidderminster Harriers39%43%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+3
OursMarket
Sutton United31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kidderminster Harriers
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 29 · at Boreham Wood (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v Yeovil Town (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Woking (A)0-0
- Sep 16 · v Gateshead (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Hartlepool United (H)2-0
Sutton United
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 30 · at Tamworth (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v Forest Green Rovers (H)3-3
- Sep 19 · at FC Halifax Town (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Eastleigh (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Scunthorpe United (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Kidderminster Harriers | Sutton United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.