National League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:30 · Kidderminster Harriers vs Worthing FC
Likeliest: Worthing FC win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kidderminster Harriers34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Worthing FC37%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kidderminster Harriers
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Solihull Moors (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at Carlisle United (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Sutton United (H)1-1
- Sep 29 · at Boreham Wood (A)1-3
- Sep 26 · v Yeovil Town (H)0-1
Worthing FC
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Wealdstone (A)0-3
- Oct 10 · v Solihull Moors (H)5-0
- Oct 3 · at Gateshead (A)2-1
- Sep 29 · at Yeovil Town (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v FC Halifax Town (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Kidderminster Harriers | Worthing FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-1 | 3-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.