Premiership (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Kilmarnock vs Motherwell
Likeliest: Motherwell win · 50%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kilmarnock24%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Motherwell50%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kilmarnock
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Rangers (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Hearts (H)1-1
- Sep 15 · at Hibernian (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Aberdeen (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · v St. Mirren (H)0-1
Motherwell
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Celtic (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Dundee FC (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · v Aberdeen (H)0-4
- Sep 5 · at Rangers (A)0-1
- Sep 2 · v Dundee United (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Kilmarnock | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.