NB I (Hungary) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:00 · Kisvárda FC vs Ferencváros TC
Likeliest: Ferencváros TC win · 63%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kisvárda FC15%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Ferencváros TC63%59%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 50% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 19% | 25% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kisvárda FC
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Vasas (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Paksi FC (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Nagykozár KSE (A)9-0
- Sep 5 · at MTK Budapest (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v ETO FC Győr (H)1-1
Ferencváros TC
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 15 · v Viktoria Plzeň (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Debreceni VSC (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Nyiregyháza Spartacus (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · at Celtic (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Debreceni EAC (A)7-0
| Last 10 games | Kisvárda FC | Ferencváros TC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-2 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.