Super Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · Kocaelispor vs Göztepe
Likeliest: Göztepe win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kocaelispor31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Göztepe41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kocaelispor
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at Beşiktaş (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Gaziantep FK (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Galatasaray (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Samsunspor (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Konyaspor (A)2-1
Göztepe
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 12 · at Eyüpspor (A)4-0
- Sep 20 · v Çaykur Rizespor (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Alanyaspor (A)2-2
- Sep 7 · v Gaziantep FK (H)2-4
- Aug 29 · at Galatasaray (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Kocaelispor | Göztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.