Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sat, Sep 12 · 16:30 · Kolding IF vs FC Fredericia
Likeliest: FC Fredericia win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kolding IF21%23%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
FC Fredericia55%53%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 77% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 31% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kolding IF
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 6 · at Aarhus Fremad (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v AB (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at HB Køge (A)2-2
- Aug 14 · v Vejle (H)2-3
- Aug 9 · at AaB (A)1-1
FC Fredericia
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 5 · v Esbjerg (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Hvidovre (A)1-2
- Aug 21 · v Aarhus Fremad (H)0-0
- Aug 14 · at AaB (A)3-0
- Aug 9 · v Vendsyssel FF (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Kolding IF | FC Fredericia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 57% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.